CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-10-24T03:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-10-24T03:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34152/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is an X3.3 flare starting at 2024-10-24T03:30Z from AR 3869 (approx. S17E68). Brightening and post eruptive arcades are observed in SDO AIA 131/171/193/335, EUV wave seen in SDO AIA 193, and opening field lines are best seen in SDO AIA 171/193. The eruption is also seen from STEREO A EUV 195/304. Arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 15nt to 22nt. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed was observed from 385 km/s to 511 km/s at 16:09Z, with an increase in temperature observed as well. The signature was preceded by a prior enhancement in solar wind parameters, most notably magnetic field components, associated with IPS: 2024-10-26T11:35Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-26T15:34Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-26T00:57Z (-9.83h, +9.83h)
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:
Prediction Method: ELEvo Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-26T00:57Z (+/-9.83h) Predicted Arrival Speed: 912 +/- 201 km/s CME input parameters: Apex direction (deg): -45.0 longitude, -19.0 latitude Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 Angular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 49.0 initial CME speed: 1806.0 (+/- 50) km/s initial height: 21.5 R_sun initial time: 2024-10-24T05:47Z drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s time step: 10 minLead Time: 32.55 hour(s)
Difference: 14.62 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Christian Moestl (ASWO) on 2024-10-25T07:01Z
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